Nation States, Cyberconflict and the Web of Profit, report by Dr. Michael McGuire,

Dr. Michael McGuire, Nation States, Cyberconflict and the Web of Profit, April 2021, 33 pages, report sponsored by HP. 

This 33 pages report, authored by Dr. Michael McGuire, senior lecturer in criminology at the University of Surrey, focuses on Nation States Cyberconflict and the increasing role of States in cyberviolence. The most relevant aspect of this escalation is the intersection between Nation States and the cybercrime economy (aka “The Web of Profit”). Cybercriminals market tools and services that some States acquire; conversely, tools (malware for example) developed by States can be found on black markets, available for cybercrime (or, why not, other States). According to M. McGuire, the results of his research highlights a novel phenomenon: “a merging of traditional international relations with the cybercrime economy and the tools and techniques which now drive the digital underground.” But while the phenomenon is important, we do not think that it is completely new. Let’s remind that in his book titled “Inside Cyber Warfare“ (2012) Jeffrey Carr described how organized crime and States could converge and cooperate in cyber offense activities.

One of the most interesting points of this report consists in the methodological approach, and particularly in the typology of cyberconflicts characteristics which is proposed. 10 distinctive features are used to analyze and describe nation state cyberconflicts: asymmetric, invisible, molecular, multi-dimensional, glocal, personal, prismatic, hybridised, agnostic, and cultural. The study also identifies a set of typical nation states strategies, objectives, targets and techniques.The objective is to be able to differentiate state actions from those of cybercrime. But the exercise is made perilous precisely because of the convergence of the two.